AUD/USD Steady as NAB Conditions Improve but RBA Expected to Hold

AUD/USD is trading in a narrow range ahead of today's Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, with the NAB Monthly Business Survey for July providing a mixed backdrop for the Australian dollar. Business conditions edged higher to +4, an improvement from prior readings but still well below the long-run average of +7, indicating the economy is performing better than feared without signaling robust strength. However, business confidence remains stuck well below pre-conflict levels, reflecting persistent uncertainty weighing on forward-looking sentiment. The combination of modestly improving conditions alongside fragile confidence gives the RBA little incentive to deviate from a widely expected hold on interest rates. Traders should anticipate a cautious central bank tone that is neither clearly hawkish nor dovish, which may limit significant AUD/USD volatility post-decision. Near-term direction for the pair will likely hinge on the RBA's guidance language and any shifts in risk appetite. Traders should watch for breakout opportunities once the policy statement is released, as the current consolidation phase could resolve quickly on any surprise rhetoric.