EUR/USD Supported as French Business Confidence Beats at 97 in July

EUR/USD is finding modest support after French business confidence climbed to 97 in July, surpassing expectations of 95 and marking a continued rebound from June's upwardly revised reading of 95. The index is now approaching the long-term average of 100, a level not seen since May 2024, signaling improving economic conditions in the eurozone's second-largest economy. The improvement was broad-based, with gains recorded across manufacturing, services, and retail trade sectors, suggesting a strengthening recovery trajectory. This data arrives ahead of today's ECB rate decision, where the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady while maintaining its data-dependent approach amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty from the US-Iran conflict. The better-than-expected French data bolsters the case for ECB caution on further easing, which is marginally supportive for the euro. EUR/USD traders should focus on ECB President Lagarde's press conference for guidance on the policy outlook. Immediate technical resistance is positioned at recent session highs, with support near the 200-day moving average.