AUD/USD has surged higher following Australia's June 2026 employment report, which smashed forecasts with the biggest job gain in a year, keeping the door open for a potential RBA rate hike in August. The unemployment rate printed at 4.4%, reinforcing labor market tightness that supports a hawkish central bank stance. Simultaneously, geopolitical risk escalated sharply as the US deployed a B-1 bomber against Iran in what is being described as the biggest strike escalation yet, pushing crude oil to a six-week high. Houthi blockades of Saudi ports further tightened supply concerns. In Asia-Pacific equities, the Kospi jumped 3% and the Nikkei advanced, buoyed by Google's AI capital expenditure boost lifting semiconductor stocks. The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7906, signaling continued yuan management. Reports of an Iranian tanker on fire added to risk-off undertones in energy markets. Traders should monitor AUD/USD for sustained momentum above recent resistance levels, while elevated oil prices may weigh on JPY and support commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD in the near term.
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