Crude Oil Holds Gains as Trump Threatens Iran Infrastructure Strikes

Crude oil prices remain elevated following a direct threat from President Trump via TruthSocial, warning that any Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz would result in the U.S. bombing and destroying a bridge or power station, including those near or within Tehran. The statement represents a significant escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions and has bolstered crude oil's geopolitical risk premium. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, with approximately 20% of the world's petroleum passing through it daily. Any disruption to traffic through the strait would have severe implications for global energy markets. The elevated oil price environment has direct forex implications, particularly for commodity-linked currencies such as CAD, NOK, and RUB, as well as oil-importing nations' currencies like JPY and INR. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility across energy-sensitive currency pairs. Further escalation could trigger safe-haven flows into USD, CHF, and JPY, while risk-sensitive currencies may face additional selling pressure.