Oil Surges, USD/CAD in Focus as Strait of Hormuz Closure Disrupts Supply

Crude oil prices are surging as the Strait of Hormuz has reverted to a de facto closure following renewed US-Iran military strikes, severely disrupting global energy supply routes. Iran stated that any decision to reopen the critical waterway depends on security considerations, while the US has reimposed its naval blockade, effectively resetting the prior ceasefire agreement. Ship-tracking data confirms traffic through the strait has collapsed to minimal levels. The strait handles approximately 20% of global oil supply, making this closure a significant supply shock. USD/CAD is directly impacted, with the Canadian dollar likely to benefit from elevated crude prices given Canada's status as a major oil exporter. Conversely, JPY and EUR may face headwinds as energy-importing economies absorb higher costs. Safe-haven flows into the US dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen could intensify if the conflict escalates further. Traders should closely monitor geopolitical developments and crude oil price action, as any de-escalation signals would sharply reverse current positioning across commodity-linked and safe-haven currencies.