USD Pressured as Mixed US Data, Geopolitics, and AI Fears Weigh on Markets

The US dollar faced a complex trading session as a barrage of mixed economic data and geopolitical developments shaped market sentiment. US June import prices surprised to the upside at +0.3% versus -0.7% expected, while housing starts surged to 1.427 million against the 1.310 million estimate, signaling underlying economic resilience. However, industrial production underwhelmed at +0.1% versus +0.2% expected. The preliminary July UMich consumer sentiment reading of 54.4 beat the 51.0 forecast, offering some support. Equity markets struggled as chipmaker concerns around Kimi K3 AI developments and Netflix weakness dragged sentiment lower. Crude oil prices moved higher amid Iran targeting a vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, adding a risk premium that could influence commodity-linked pairs like USD/CAD. Baker Hughes oil rig counts rose by 7 to 452. Trump's threat to escalate Canadian tariffs over wildfire smoke introduces additional uncertainty for USD/CAD. Traders should monitor geopolitical risk premiums and next week's data calendar for directional cues.