Oil Prices Edge Higher on US-Iran Tensions; EUR/USD Steady Amid Calm Session

European markets closed the week on a quieter note, though oil prices nudged higher as US-Iran tensions continued to weigh on energy supply expectations. Iran's strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern, with the IEA reporting that global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June as flows through Hormuz resumed, but still lagged pre-war levels by 9.4 million bpd. The geopolitical risk premium in crude is supporting commodity-linked currencies while pressuring energy-importing economies. German headline annual inflation was confirmed at 2.3%, keeping the ECB's policy calculus largely unchanged. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady at its July meeting while maintaining its tightening guidance, a stance that continues to support the yen. Interest rate expectations across major central banks saw modest shifts this week, with traders recalibrating positioning. EUR/USD and USD/JPY remain in focus as traders assess the interplay between geopolitical risks, inflation data, and diverging monetary policy paths heading into next week.