USD Strengthens as Oil Drops Below 200-Day MA on US-Iran Peace Deal

The US dollar is gaining broad support as crude oil plunged $2.88 to $73.15, breaking below the key 200-day moving average at $73.57, following President Trump's declaration that Iran is no longer a nuclear threat. The S&P 500 rose 1.01% and the Nasdaq surged 1.40%, reflecting a strong risk-on environment. Trump highlighted record jobs, falling prices, and flowing oil supplies as key economic achievements. The sharp decline in oil prices carries significant implications for inflation expectations, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more room to ease monetary policy. Lower energy costs could reduce headline CPI readings, shifting rate hike probabilities lower. Intel shares jumped 6.64% on reports of a potential Apple partnership. For forex traders, the combination of falling oil prices and robust equity markets creates a complex USD picture — lower inflation expectations may weigh on the dollar longer-term, but near-term risk appetite and strong employment data provide support. Key pairs to watch include USD/CAD, which may benefit from oil weakness pressuring the Canadian dollar.