FOMC Playbook: Hawkish Fed Could Boost USD, Pressure EUR/USD & AUD/USD

Ahead of the June FOMC decision, analysts are positioning for a potentially hawkish outcome that could significantly impact major forex pairs and risk assets. A higher dot plot projecting fewer rate cuts, upward revisions to inflation forecasts, and a less dovish policy bias would likely strengthen the US dollar broadly while weighing on EUR/USD and AUD/USD. Gold prices would also face downward pressure under such a scenario as higher real yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. The Nasdaq 100, sensitive to rate expectations, could see selling pressure if the Fed signals a prolonged restrictive stance. EUR/USD traders should monitor the 1.0800 support zone, while AUD/USD remains vulnerable given its sensitivity to global risk appetite and commodity price fluctuations. The key variables to watch include the median 2026-2027 rate projections, any changes to the inflation outlook in the Summary of Economic Projections, and Chair Powell's tone during the post-decision press conference. A dovish surprise would reverse these dynamics sharply.