Gold Surges Past $4,650 as USD Weakens; AUD/USD Eyes RBA Decision

Gold has surged above $4,650 amid broad US dollar weakness and shifting geopolitical dynamics following Trump's pause on Project Freedom, while oil prices dropped on Iran peace hopes. The weaker dollar is providing a significant tailwind for precious metals and commodity-linked currencies. In the Asia-Pacific region, NAB is forecasting a June RBA rate hike to 4.60% as Middle East-driven inflation compounds domestic pressures, while CBA expects the RBA to hold steady for the remainder of 2026 after three consecutive hikes. ING sees potential for an AUD rebound as the RBA signals a pause but remains ready to act. China's private services PMI came in at 52.6 for April, indicating continued expansion. The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8562. Australia announced a A$10 billion fuel reserve initiative in response to the Middle East crisis. AUD/USD traders should watch RBA guidance closely, as divergent analyst forecasts suggest heightened volatility around upcoming policy decisions. Support for AUD/USD remains tied to commodity price resilience and China's economic trajectory.