Broad market risk sentiment shifted dramatically as Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, triggering a sharp sell-off in crude oil prices. President Trump stated he expects a US-Iran war deal 'in a day or two' and called for the US naval blockade of Iran to be halted 'very quickly.' However, a senior Iranian official cautioned that significant differences remain and serious talks are still required. Iran's Parliamentary Committee also stated uranium will not leave the country, adding complexity to negotiations. The de-escalation narrative pressured the US dollar lower as safe-haven demand unwound, benefiting risk-sensitive currencies. Oil-linked currencies such as CAD faced headwinds from the crude collapse, while JPY weakened as haven flows reversed. Trump's statement that Israel is now prohibited from bombing Lebanon further contributed to easing geopolitical risk premiums. Traders should monitor headline risk closely, as deal negotiations remain fluid and any breakdown could rapidly reverse current moves across forex and commodity markets.
USDJPY
USDCAD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to hold near key resistance levels, with downside risks building as bearish technical and fundamental factors converge. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both positioning for potential upside breakouts as dollar weakness persists. The greenback has faced sustained selling pressure amid deteriorating US economic expectations and shifting Federal Reserve rate cut probabilities. EUR/USD continues to benefit from relative eurozone economic resilience, while GBP/USD draws support from the Bank of England's comparatively hawkish stance. Technical analysis shows the DXY encountering firm resistance near its descending trendline, with repeated failures to break higher suggesting exhaustion among dollar bulls. Key support for the index lies at recent swing lows, and a decisive break below could accelerate losses. For EUR/USD, resistance is being tested near multi-week highs, while GBP/USD is consolidating just below a significant technical ceiling. Traders should watch upcoming US economic releases for catalysts that could trigger a definitive directional move in the dollar.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has formed a major head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, signaling a potential bearish reversal after the pair served as the primary vehicle for US dollar bulls during the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began on February 27. The pair's rally has been closely tied to safe-haven dollar demand driven by war-related geopolitical risk premiums. However, the sharp collapse in crude oil prices following Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is fundamentally reshaping the macro landscape. Lower oil prices reduce Japan's import bill, providing structural support to the yen, while simultaneously easing global inflation pressures that had supported the Fed's higher-for-longer rate narrative. The head and shoulders neckline represents critical near-term support, and a confirmed break below could trigger an accelerated move lower with measured targets derived from the pattern's height. Traders should note that any reversal in geopolitical de-escalation could invalidate this bearish setup. Volume confirmation on the neckline break will be essential for pattern validation.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD faces renewed pressure as crude oil prices bounce off session lows following comments from a senior Iranian official indicating that significant differences remain in nuclear negotiations, requiring further serious talks. The stalling of Iran-related diplomacy reduces the likelihood of increased Iranian oil supply returning to global markets in the near term, providing a floor for crude prices. Oil-sensitive currencies such as the Canadian dollar tend to benefit from firmer energy prices, placing downward pressure on USD/CAD. The development also introduces a geopolitical risk premium into broader commodity markets. West Texas Intermediate crude recovered from intraday lows as traders reassessed supply expectations. For forex traders, near-term focus remains on headline risk from the negotiations, with any breakdown in talks likely to push oil higher and support CAD further. Conversely, a surprise breakthrough could weigh on oil and lift USD/CAD. Traders should monitor upcoming inventory data and OPEC commentary for additional directional cues alongside the geopolitical developments.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Broad market optimism has persisted through the final sessions of the week as traders maintain a risk-on posture driven by evolving US-Iran geopolitical developments. US President Trump's remarks that the conflict will be over "very soon" have fueled positive sentiment, with market participants closely watching the 22 April ceasefire deadline as a potential catalyst. The optimistic tone has supported risk-sensitive currencies while weighing on traditional safe havens such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. European trading sessions have reflected this cautious but steady bullishness, with equities holding gains and the US dollar finding mixed performance across G10 pairs. The geopolitical backdrop remains the dominant driver, overshadowing economic data releases for the time being. Traders should remain alert to headline risk, as any deterioration in US-Iran negotiations ahead of next week's deadline could trigger a swift reversal in sentiment and a flight to safety. Near-term positioning is likely to stay headline-dependent rather than data-driven.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY has moved into positive territory for the week, with the Japanese yen surrendering all of its earlier weekly gains against the US dollar. The reversal highlights renewed dollar strength and diminishing safe-haven demand for the yen, as markets reassess near-term risk dynamics. The pair's recovery suggests that earlier yen buying was likely driven by temporary positioning rather than a sustained shift in fundamentals. The Bank of Japan's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization continues to weigh on the yen, with markets still uncertain about the timing of any further rate adjustments. Meanwhile, the US dollar has found support from resilient economic data and ongoing uncertainty around Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. From a technical perspective, the erasure of weekly gains places USD/JPY back near key resistance levels, and traders will be watching whether bullish momentum can extend further. Near-term direction will likely depend on upcoming US economic releases and any shifts in Fed rate expectations, with risk sentiment also playing a pivotal role.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The Australian dollar has entered a corrective phase against the US dollar, retreating from recent local highs after weaker-than-expected Australian labour market data dampened bullish momentum. The soft employment figures suggest a cooling jobs market, which may reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its hawkish stance and could bring forward expectations for rate cuts. The disappointing data has undermined AUD/USD's recent rally, which had been supported by improving risk sentiment and commodity price strength. Traders are now reassessing the near-term outlook for the pair, with the labour report adding to concerns about the resilience of the Australian economy. Technical indicators point to a corrective pullback, with support likely forming near recent consolidation zones. The RBA's upcoming policy communications will be closely monitored for any shift in tone. For traders, the combination of soft domestic data and a potentially firming US dollar creates a challenging environment for AUD longs, and further downside risk remains if additional economic releases disappoint.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD has extended its pullback to fresh three-week lows, breaking below the key 1.3700 handle as the US dollar faces sustained selling pressure against the Canadian dollar. The move represents a continuation of the bearish trend that has developed over recent sessions, with the pair shedding significant ground from its earlier monthly highs. The Canadian dollar's strength is being supported by a combination of resilient oil prices and improved risk appetite amid optimistic geopolitical developments. Technical indicators suggest the pair may test further downside, with the break below 1.3700 opening the door toward the next support zone near 1.3650. Resistance has shifted lower to the 1.3720-1.3740 area, which previously acted as support. The broader macro backdrop, including divergent monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, continues to influence medium-term positioning. Traders should watch upcoming Canadian employment data and crude oil price action for additional directional cues on this pair.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
G10 currency markets are experiencing notable divergence as the interplay between equity market performance and oil prices creates distinct winners and losers across major pairs. The EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, and USD/CAD pairs are all reflecting this bifurcated environment, with commodity-linked currencies benefiting from firm crude prices while traditional funding currencies face pressure from the risk-on backdrop. The euro has shown mixed performance, gaining against the pound but trading cautiously against the dollar. The Japanese yen remains under pressure as risk appetite diminishes demand for safe-haven assets, while the Canadian dollar continues to outperform on the back of supportive oil dynamics. This cross-asset correlation framework is proving critical for understanding current FX price action. Traders navigating G10 pairs should monitor equity index movements alongside energy market developments for directional signals. Near-term volatility could increase as markets approach the 22 April geopolitical deadline, potentially reshuffling the current equity-oil correlation dynamics that are driving currency divergence.
EURUSD
USDJPY
EURGBP
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY is trading in a consolidation phase that masks increasingly elevated risks of Japanese authorities intervening in currency markets to support the yen. The pair remains near multi-decade highs, with the prolonged weakness in the Japanese currency drawing heightened verbal warnings from Japanese officials. The Bank of Japan's ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance continues to contrast sharply with the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer rate posture, maintaining the wide interest rate differential that has pressured the yen throughout 2026. However, the apparent calm in price action belies growing tension, as Japanese finance ministry officials have intensified rhetoric around "excessive" and "speculative" yen moves. Key support sits near the 160.00 psychological level, while resistance is positioned around recent highs near 161.50-162.00. Traders should exercise caution with long USD/JPY positions, as intervention could trigger sharp, sudden reversals of several hundred pips. Monitoring Japanese official commentary and positioning data remains essential for managing downside risk.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range during Friday's European session as the economic calendar offers little in the way of market-moving releases. The session's primary data points — Italian and Eurozone trade balance figures — are considered low-tier and unlikely to shift European Central Bank policy expectations or drive significant price action. Market attention has instead pivoted to geopolitical developments, with US-Iran negotiations providing a cautiously optimistic backdrop. Adding to the risk-on tone, Israel and Lebanon initiated a 10-day ceasefire on Thursday to facilitate further diplomatic talks, easing some of the Middle East risk premium that has periodically supported safe-haven flows into the US dollar and Swiss franc. With no high-impact US data scheduled for the session either, traders are likely to see subdued volatility and range-bound conditions across major pairs. The geopolitical de-escalation narrative could weigh modestly on safe-haven demand, offering mild support to risk-sensitive currencies. Traders should monitor any headline developments from the US-Iran front, as unexpected setbacks could quickly reverse sentiment and trigger sharp moves.
EURUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY is building momentum toward a potential breakout above the 162.00 level as the Japanese yen continues to underperform against the US dollar. The pair has been grinding higher on the back of the persistent interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, with US yields remaining elevated and supporting dollar demand. Technical analysis shows the pair approaching a critical resistance zone at 162.00, a level that, if breached convincingly, could open the path toward 162.50 and potentially 163.00 in the near term. Immediate support is identified at 161.20, with stronger buying interest expected near the 160.50-160.80 zone. Momentum indicators are tilting bullish, though overbought conditions on daily timeframes warrant caution. The risk-on market environment has further reduced yen demand, compounding the currency's weakness. Traders considering long positions should be mindful of elevated intervention risks from Japanese authorities, which could produce violent counter-moves. Upcoming US economic releases and any shifts in Fed rate expectations will be key catalysts.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The April rallies in AUD/USD and NZD/USD face significant headwinds as a reversal in US dollar momentum threatens to unwind recent gains. Price action setups indicate that the US Dollar Index has found a base and is mounting a recovery, putting pressure on both antipodean currencies. The dollar's resurgence is linked to shifting rate expectations and broader risk reassessment, with traders recalibrating positions ahead of key US economic releases. AUD/USD and NZD/USD had benefited from a weaker dollar environment and improved risk appetite throughout April, but technical signals now suggest the rally may be overextended. The correlation with commodities, including Brent crude oil futures, adds another layer of complexity, as energy market volatility feeds into risk sentiment. Key technical levels are being tested, and a sustained dollar recovery could push both pairs toward lower support zones established earlier in the month. Traders should watch for confirmation of the dollar reversal pattern and monitor upcoming US data for catalysts that could accelerate or stall the move.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar faces mixed pressures as IEA Chief Birol confirmed that the release of additional emergency oil reserves is under active consideration, though stating 'we are not there yet.' The comments come amid heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, with Birol warning that failure to reopen the critical waterway could lead to 'significantly higher energy prices.' The IEA estimates it will take approximately two years for global oil production to return to pre-war levels, suggesting prolonged supply disruption. Volatile energy markets are expected to persist, creating headwinds for oil-importing nations' currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, with Birol noting Japan may need to take action. Commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK could see support from elevated crude prices, while USD/JPY may face upward pressure if Japan's energy import costs surge. The accelerating shift toward electric vehicles adds a longer-term structural element to the energy outlook. Traders should monitor Hormuz developments closely, as escalation could trigger sharp moves across energy-sensitive forex pairs.
USDJPY
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
NZD/USD is facing a critical technical juncture as the pair tests the 0.5918–0.5920 resistance zone, a level that has capped upside momentum on multiple occasions. The bullish bias remains intact as long as the pair holds above the 0.5821 pivot level, which serves as the key line in the sand for near-term directional conviction. A decisive break above 0.5920 could open the door to further gains toward the 0.6000 psychological level, while failure to clear resistance may trigger a pullback toward the pivot support. The pair's recent advance reflects improving risk appetite and potential positioning ahead of upcoming New Zealand economic releases. Technical indicators suggest building bullish momentum, though the significance of the overhead resistance zone warrants caution. Traders should watch for a confirmed daily close above 0.5920 to validate bullish continuation, while a break below 0.5821 would shift the bias back to neutral or bearish. Volume and price action at the resistance zone will be key determinants of the next directional move.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
NZD/USD faces modest downside pressure as political uncertainty in New Zealand intensifies following reports of a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. Despite Luxon's public assertion that he retains full caucus support within the National Party, media reports indicate growing internal pressure amid declining polling numbers. The political instability compounds an already fragile New Zealand economic backdrop, with coalition risks rising ahead of the next election cycle. The RBNZ's ongoing monetary policy stance adds another layer of complexity for kiwi traders navigating these headwinds. While the immediate market reaction has been contained, sustained political uncertainty historically weighs on currency sentiment, particularly for smaller, risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD. Traders should monitor upcoming polling data and any further caucus developments that could escalate into a formal leadership contest. Near-term, NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further softness if political risk premiums widen, though the impact is expected to be gradual rather than acute absent a sudden leadership change or policy shift.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
NZD/USD is expected to see limited volatility heading into the Asian session on Friday, April 17, 2026, as the economic calendar features only minor New Zealand data releases. The sparse lineup is unlikely to generate significant price action for the kiwi dollar, with no high-impact indicators scheduled that could shift Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy expectations. In the absence of major domestic catalysts, NZD/USD will likely trade within recent ranges, with price action driven primarily by broader risk sentiment and any overnight developments from US or European markets. Traders should note that thin liquidity during the early Asian session could lead to sporadic moves, but sustained directional momentum appears unlikely without a notable data surprise. Near-term support for NZD/USD sits at recent session lows, while resistance aligns with this week's highs. Market participants may look ahead to next week's calendar for more meaningful trading opportunities, as Friday's session is expected to be quiet for kiwi-related pairs.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The prospect of a US-Iran nuclear deal is introducing fresh uncertainty into oil-sensitive currency pairs, with Gulf and European officials now estimating a six-month timeline for negotiations. This extended timeframe, while significantly shorter than the two years required for the original JCPOA, suggests that potential Iranian oil supply returning to global markets remains a medium-term consideration rather than an imminent catalyst. For USD/CAD, the implications are notable as Canadian dollar valuations remain closely tied to crude oil prices. A successful deal could eventually add significant Iranian barrels to global supply, pressuring oil prices lower and weighing on commodity-linked currencies including CAD, AUD, and NOK. In the near term, the prolonged negotiation window may keep oil prices range-bound as traders balance geopolitical risk premiums against potential future supply increases. The US dollar could see mixed flows as sanctions relief discussions intertwine with broader trade policy dynamics. Traders should monitor crude oil inventories and any acceleration or breakdown in diplomatic talks as key catalysts for directional moves in oil-correlated forex pairs.
USDCAD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD has surged approximately 360 pips from its late-March lows, driven by renewed optimism surrounding US-Iran ceasefire developments and the Australian dollar's characteristic high-beta sensitivity to global risk assets. The rally has seen AUD outperform most major currencies, reflecting a broader improvement in risk appetite across financial markets. However, technical analysis suggests the pair may be overextended and vulnerable to a minor mean reversion decline below the 0.7200 level before establishing a new upleg. The sharp move higher has likely stretched momentum indicators into overbought territory, increasing the probability of a corrective pullback. Geopolitical de-escalation between the US and Iran has been a key catalyst, reducing safe-haven demand and channeling flows into risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar. Traders should monitor the 0.7200 level as a critical near-term support zone, as a dip below this area could present a buying opportunity for those anticipating the broader uptrend to resume. Risk management remains essential given the potential for short-term volatility amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is trading in the 1.1800–1.1830 range, maintaining bullish momentum following a recent technical breakout above key resistance levels. The pair continues to benefit from a softer US dollar environment as traders position ahead of upcoming high-impact economic data releases. GBP/USD is also extending gains in tandem, reflecting broad-based dollar weakness across the major pairs. The euro's strength is underpinned by improved risk sentiment and expectations surrounding diverging monetary policy trajectories between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD's breakout above the 1.1800 handle opens the door for further upside, with the next resistance zone likely situated near 1.1850–1.1880. Support is established around the 1.1770–1.1780 area, which previously acted as resistance. Traders should monitor the forthcoming economic releases closely, as stronger-than-expected US data could temper the current bullish bias, while softer prints would reinforce the prevailing upward trend in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
