Sterling faces a fresh inflation test as UK July CPI data shows headline price growth picking up while core inflation holds steady, keeping GBP/USD sensitive to Bank of England repricing. The acceleration stems largely from the Ofgem energy price cap adjustment effective in July, with households estimated to be paying around £221 more on average annually for energy. Services inflation, the BOE's preferred gauge of domestic price persistence, is seen easing slightly to 3.4% from 3.6% in June, driven by a smaller year-on-year increase in air fares compared with the same period last year. The divergence between a hotter headline print and cooling services inflation complicates the BOE's path, as energy-driven inflation is typically viewed as transitory while services momentum guides policy. Traders should watch GBP/USD reaction around the 1.3400-1.3500 zone, with softer services data potentially reviving rate-cut bets and pressuring the pound, while sticky core readings could offer support. EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY are likely to see correlated volatility around the release.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The European session agenda is dominated by inflation data, placing GBP/USD and EUR/USD at the centre of intraday volatility. The headline event is the UK CPI report, a fresh reading that will directly shape expectations for the Bank of England's policy stance over the final months of the year. With market pricing for further BOE easing still fluid, an upside surprise would likely lift short-dated gilt yields and support sterling, while a downside miss could accelerate cut expectations and weigh on GBP/USD and lift EUR/GBP. The Eurozone CPI report is also scheduled, but as the final estimate for July it rarely deviates materially from the flash reading and therefore tends to have limited market impact, leaving EUR/USD more responsive to cross-flows and dollar direction. Traders should expect the sharpest moves in sterling crosses in the minutes following the UK release, with GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP typically amplifying the reaction. Liquidity conditions ahead of the print may exaggerate initial spikes before positioning settles.
GBPUSD
EURUSD
EURGBP
GBPJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD fell roughly 20 pips from around 1.3900 to near 1.3880 after President Trump announced a three-day pause on the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods that were scheduled to take effect at midnight US Eastern time. Trump indicated a tentative deal has been reached, easing immediate trade-war risk premium that had been built into the Canadian dollar. The relief move was modest in scale, reflecting trader caution given the short duration of the reprieve and the absence of a finalised agreement. Trade policy remains the dominant driver for the loonie, overshadowing domestic fundamentals in the near term. Technically, USD/CAD support sits at the 1.3860-1.3880 area, with a sustained break opening scope toward 1.3800, while failed negotiations would likely trigger a swift retest of 1.3900 and beyond toward recent highs. Traders should note the risk of headline-driven gaps and widened spreads around the new deadline, and consider that CAD strength may also be capped by oil price dynamics and diverging Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD is trading with elevated two-way risk as Canadian and US negotiators prepare to meet again ahead of the midnight tariff deadline, with the pair hovering near the 1.3900 area. The resumption of talks signals that diplomatic channels remain active, offering the Canadian dollar a degree of support, but the backdrop remains one of considerable uncertainty over whether an agreement can be reached in time. The threatened tariff escalation represents a material downside risk to Canadian growth and export earnings, which would justify a higher USD/CAD if implemented. Conversely, a negotiated resolution would remove a significant risk premium from the loonie. Technically, resistance is seen at 1.3900-1.3950, with a decisive break exposing higher levels, while support rests near 1.3860 and then 1.3800. Traders should anticipate thin liquidity and headline-driven spikes into the deadline, making position sizing and stop placement critical. Oil price movements and Bank of Canada rate expectations remain secondary drivers while trade headlines dominate the CAD narrative.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD faces a dual catalyst as traders await the August 19 FOMC Minutes alongside Canadian inflation data that showed headline CPI accelerating to 3.0%, driven primarily by higher energy costs. The Minutes are expected to clarify whether the Federal Reserve is prioritising a cooling labour market, which would support rate-cut expectations and weigh on the dollar, or persistent inflation risks, which would argue for holding policy restrictive and lift USD across the board. On the Canadian side, headline CPI at 3.0% sits at the upper bound of the Bank of Canada's 1-3% target range, reducing the scope for near-term BOC easing and offering the loonie fundamental support, though energy-driven gains may be discounted as temporary. The resulting policy divergence narrative will determine USD/CAD direction. Technically, traders are monitoring the 1.3900 pivot, with resistance layered above toward recent highs and support near 1.3800-1.3860. A dovish-leaning Minutes combined with firm Canadian inflation would favour downside in USD/CAD, while hawkish Fed language could drive a sustained break higher.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Qatar says Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement could clear path for broader US-Iran talksECB policymaker Lane says inflation outlook is highly dependent on US-Iran warGermany August ZEW survey current conditions -61.1 vs -69.5 expectedThe bond market is one of the key spots to watch at the momentUS futures nudge lower on the day, tech shares lead declinesUK labour market shows further signs of cooling in JuneEUR/USD upside break may have to waitIt's been a slow session with very limited action in the...
USD
EUR
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Just a little catch up on things as we had some technical issues for a couple of hours.
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
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EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Indian rupee intervention returns as USD/INR hovers near all-time highUKMTO report a vessel hit by a projectile while sailing out of the Strait of Hormuz.Analysts say that a surprise China LPR cut cannot be ruled out this weekBHP CEO plays down Canada uranium talk, stays focused on four pillarsWestpac says dollar's structural headwinds outweigh recent resilience, see EUR/USD and GBP/USD higherING says heavy tone in Treasuries has further to run as truce lapsesICYMI: ETF flows return to gold as...
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
AUD
CAD
NZD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
ING expects the heavy tone in US Treasuries to persist as the tariff truce lapses, a dynamic that keeps long-end yields biased higher and complicates the dollar's recovery attempts. The latest TIC data showed headline foreign holdings of Treasuries declining, with Japan, the UK and China all trimming positions. The transaction picture was more mixed: one measure showed a modest $6.8 billion net inflow in June, while ING's TIC-based read pointed to roughly $72 billion of net liquidation by foreign holders, highlighting how measure-dependent and volatile this series has become month to month. For FX, reduced foreign appetite for Treasuries is a structural negative for USD, even if higher yields offer short-term carry support. Rising term premium alongside softening demand typically pressures USD/JPY funding flows and supports EUR/USD dips. Traders should watch the 10-year yield's response to any renewed trade friction, as a disorderly yield rise tends to weigh on the dollar rather than lift it, keeping EUR/USD and USD/JPY volatility elevated into upcoming US data.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
US equity indices closed lower with the S&P 500 and Dow leading declines of near 0.50%, as selling accelerated into the afternoon session. The catalysts were twofold: rising crude oil prices, which revived inflation concerns, and higher Treasury yields, which tightened financial conditions and pressured rate-sensitive sectors. For FX markets, the risk-off tone typically supports traditional safe havens, with USD/JPY and USD/CHF often catching bids on defensive flows, while commodity-linked currencies such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD face headwinds when equity breadth deteriorates. Firmer oil prices remain a relative positive for CAD, capping USD/CAD upside. The simultaneous rise in yields and drop in stocks suggests markets are repricing the inflation path rather than the growth path, a combination that historically favors the dollar against low-yielders on carry but limits broad USD gains against the euro. Traders should monitor whether equity weakness extends into follow-through selling, as a deeper correction would likely amplify yen demand and compress AUD/JPY and other risk-sensitive crosses in the near term.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
AUDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Sandisk shares continued their advance following last week's Investor Day, where management outlined an aggressive financial framework covering FY2028 through FY2030 and emphasized the longer-term growth opportunity tied to artificial intelligence. On the product side, the company expects AI inference workloads to materially increase demand for flash storage in data centers, a structural demand thesis that investors rewarded with follow-through buying. While the story is equity-specific, it feeds the broader AI capex theme that has underpinned global risk appetite in 2026. Sustained strength in semiconductor and storage names typically supports pro-cyclical currencies, with AUD/USD, NZD/USD and KRW-linked Asian FX benefiting from technology export optimism, while safe-haven demand for JPY and CHF tends to fade. Traders should note the divergence risk: equity leadership concentrated in AI names has not consistently translated into broad dollar direction, as US yields remain the dominant FX driver. Continued tech outperformance would keep AUD/JPY and other risk-sensitive crosses supported, but a rotation out of AI capex plays could quickly reverse those flows.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
AUDJPY
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The dollar's rebound against major currencies stalled last week after a slew of US economic releases dimmed expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. With rate hike probabilities pared back, the yield support that had been driving the greenback's recovery faded, allowing EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the commodity bloc to recoup earlier losses. The market's repricing reflects softer momentum in growth and inflation-sensitive indicators, shifting focus toward whether the Fed retains an extended pause rather than delivering additional hikes. For traders, the key implication is that dollar strength now requires an upside data surprise to be sustained, leaving rallies vulnerable to reversal. EUR/USD is likely to remain supported on dips while rate differentials narrow, and USD/JPY faces two-way risk as US yields consolidate. Attention turns to upcoming US consumer-facing data, including retail sales and sentiment readings, alongside Fed commentary for confirmation of the softer policy path. A further downgrade in hike expectations would extend the dollar's corrective phase, while firmer data could quickly restore the rebound narrative.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The dollar came under pressure at the start of the new week, with AUD/USD leading gains across the majors while the greenback lagged in European trading. Sentiment was steady overall, with European indices mostly a little higher and S&P 500 futures holding near flat, allowing risk-sensitive currencies to outperform. Chinese data disappointed: July retail sales missed expectations, industrial output growth slowed and new home prices extended their declines, with the statistics bureau attributing part of the softness to extreme weather conditions. The Australian dollar's resilience despite the soft China figures underscores that dollar weakness, rather than commodity demand optimism, was the dominant driver. Geopolitically, Iran reaffirmed that talks with the United States have not yet begun, keeping a modest risk premium in energy markets. With no major US releases on Monday, positioning dominated flows, though the week features a significant test of US consumer health. Traders should watch whether AUD/USD can sustain gains without confirmation from Chinese activity data, while EUR/USD upside remains dependent on continued softening in US yields.
AUDUSD
EURUSD
USDCNH
GBPUSD
USDJPY
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The yen's modest advance despite a clear GDP miss underscores how currency direction is currently being driven more by shifting Fed expectations than by domestic Japanese data, with fed funds futures now implying a two-thirds chance the Fed holds rates next month. That repricing of US policy risk is doing more to narrow the yield differential than anything coming out of Tokyo, leaving the yen's gains modest and still contained within its recent range rather than signalling a decisive break.
USD
JPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar came under broad selling pressure following a sharp 0.6% decline in retail sales, driving GBP/USD to 1.3560 and EUR/USD above the 1.15 handle. Consumer sentiment deteriorated to 51.0, reinforcing concerns about slowing economic momentum and prompting traders to scale back Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Gold surged toward $4,400 per ounce as the weakening dollar and reduced hawkish Fed pricing boosted safe-haven and alternative asset demand. The combination of soft consumption data and declining sentiment suggests the Fed may hold rates steady at upcoming meetings, further undermining dollar support. GBP/USD faces immediate resistance near the 1.3600 psychological level, while EUR/USD could target 1.1550 if dollar weakness persists. Support for GBP/USD sits around 1.3500, with EUR/USD finding a floor near 1.1480. Traders should monitor upcoming US inflation and employment data for further confirmation of the economic slowdown narrative. The dovish repricing of Fed expectations may continue to weigh on the greenback in the near term.
GBPUSD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has surged approximately 0.50% during Thursday's session, breaking through multiple key technical levels to reach its highest point since May 2026. The pair climbed decisively above the 100-hour moving average and the critical 50% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.3503, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. The advance has also extended beyond the July high of 1.35573, establishing new multi-month highs and opening the door for further upside. The breakaway from the 50% Fibonacci retracement is a significant technical development, as this level had previously served as a resistance ceiling. Traders should now watch the 1.3503 level as potential support on any pullback, while the next resistance zone lies near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 range. With the price trading above both the moving average and the midpoint retracement, the technical bias remains firmly bullish. A sustained hold above the July high could attract additional buying pressure and momentum-driven flows toward higher targets.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
Global market sentiment has turned cautious on Thursday as escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp spike in crude oil prices weigh on risk appetite across asset classes. The geopolitical uncertainty is driving demand for traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and US dollar, while commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currencies face headwinds. Rising crude oil prices are adding inflationary pressures, which could complicate central bank rate decisions in the near term, particularly for energy-importing economies. Mixed corporate earnings updates and forward guidance have further dampened investor confidence, contributing to the risk-off tone. Currency traders should monitor USD/JPY and USD/CHF for safe-haven flows, while pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD may face downward pressure in this environment. Oil-sensitive currencies such as the Canadian dollar could see increased volatility as energy markets react to the geopolitical developments. Near-term direction will depend on whether Middle East tensions escalate further or diplomatic efforts ease market concerns.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar edged lower during the European session amid a mixed market mood, with safe-haven gold staging a rebound. The greenback faced broad-based selling pressure as multiple macro developments weighed on sentiment. The Bank of Japan is reportedly preparing for a September rate hike with an accelerated pace of tightening, bolstering the yen and pressuring USD/JPY. In Europe, French inflation re-accelerated in July with core prices also moving higher, while German wholesale prices bounced back as energy tax cut effects lapsed — both factors supportive of a firmer euro. The Swiss economy posted solid quarterly growth of 1.5% in Q2, lending support to the franc. Meanwhile, China's new bank loans contracted again in July for the second time, signaling persistent economic weakness in the world's second-largest economy and dampening risk appetite. Bitcoin lost the critical $64,000 support level, adding to the cautious market tone. Traders should monitor upcoming US data releases and BOJ communications for further directional cues on dollar pairs.
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
USDCNY
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is seeing supportive flows during the Asia-Pacific session as President Trump announced new tariffs of up to 100% on drone imports, escalating trade tensions and boosting safe-haven demand for the greenback. Oil prices edged marginally higher on the news, reflecting concerns over potential supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risk premiums. The tariff announcement adds to an already protectionist trade agenda, which has historically supported USD strength against risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD, while weighing on commodity-linked pairs. The broader Asia-Pacific session saw muted price action, with markets digesting the implications of the latest trade policy escalation. Traders should monitor USD/CNH and AUD/USD for potential volatility as retaliatory measures from affected trading partners could materialize. Near-term, the dollar index may find support from sustained risk aversion, though prolonged trade conflicts could introduce stagflationary pressures that complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Key resistance for the DXY sits near recent highs, while commodity currencies face downside risk on deteriorating trade sentiment.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
